Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$145.48 Published $174.28 Target $222.96 Window close $229.57 Peak
$142.03 – $147.02Entry zone — fair-value band
$145.48Published — price the day we called it
$174.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$229.57Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$222.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 63 days.

Peak price
$229.57
peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+57.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$222.96
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
63
Window
October 20, 2025 – January 18, 2026

The thesis — published October 20, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$174.28
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$142.03 – $147.02
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$145.48
published October 20, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam sells the tools chipmakers need to build advanced AI chips. Recent trading shows the price got knocked down, yet buying picked up and the recent average price is nudging higher, which often signals recovery ahead. News about the U.S. and China cooling tensions helps future orders. Together, this points to a likely 1-3 month bounce as new AI chip designs and packaging projects push customers to place more orders.

Primary drivers

  • AI chips and memory upgrades mean chipmakers need more Lam tools
  • Price fell hard recently but its recent average price is edging up
  • Softer U.S.-China tone could make chip equipment orders easier
  • Trading volume is heavier than normal, showing active buyer interest

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 63 days

Lyra published LRCX at $145.48 on 2025-10-20. The call expected 20% growth toward $174.28 over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to Lam tools used for artificial intelligence chips, memory upgrades, a recent price drop with the recent average price edging up, a softer U.S.-China tone, and heavier than normal trading volume.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 63 days. It later peaked at $229.57 on 2026-01-15, with a 57.8% peak gain. It ended the window at $222.96. The published thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-22, Lam reported adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share on revenue of $5.32 billion for the quarter ended 2025-09-28. It also guided to $1.15 per share on $5.2 billion in revenue for the quarter ending 2025-12-28.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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