Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from October 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$51.53 Published $56.39 Target $52.97 Window close $57.55 Peak
$50.47 – $51.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$51.53Published — price the day we called it
$56.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$52.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 77 days.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$52.97
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
77
Window
October 20, 2025 – January 18, 2026

The thesis — published October 20, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$56.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$50.47 – $51.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$51.53
published October 20, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America looks steady as bank stocks improve. Trading has picked up and the recent average price is edging higher, which hints at steady buying by larger investors. The market expects earnings per share to rise about 8.5% in Q3. Its mix of consumer banking, wealth, and markets helps smooth bumps. If rate swings calm down, the stock could be revalued over the next 1-3 months toward a nearby prior price zone.

Primary drivers

  • Rising profits across many companies are lifting bank valuations.
  • Stronger trading activity suggests steady buying by larger investors.
  • Multiple fee-based businesses spread risk and give dependable income.
  • Calmer interest-rate moves reduce shocks to bank profits and outlook.

How it played out

BAC: target reached in 77 days

Lyra published BAC at 51.53 on 2025-10-20 with a short-term thesis for 10% growth toward 56.39. The thesis pointed to improving bank valuations, stronger trading activity, fee-based businesses across consumer banking, wealth, and markets, and calmer interest-rate moves. It also pointed to expected Q3 earnings per share growth of about 8.5%.

Inside the window, BAC reached 57.55 on 2026-01-05, above the 56.39 target. It got there in 77 days. The peak gain was 11.7%. By 2026-01-18, the stock had ended at 52.97. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Bank of America reported fourth-quarter revenue of $28.4 billion and adjusted earnings of 98 cents a share. The same day, Financial News reported that fourth-quarter trading revenue was $4.5 billion, with equities trading revenue up 23%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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