NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 18, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 20, 2025
NVIDIA leads the AI chip market, and the recent pullback looks like it may be settling down. The recent average price is flattening slightly, and overall mood on the stock stays positive. NVIDIA's main manufacturing partner, TSMC, reports strong AI sales and high demand for advanced packaging, which supports supply. With data center sales still solid, buying the dip looks aimed at a 1-3 month rebound as buyers return in the near term.
Primary drivers
- Leader in AI chips; data center demand keeps rising as firms add capacity
- Shares fell recently, but signs suggest the slide is easing and stabilizing
- TSMC sees strong demand for advanced packaging, helping steady chip supply
- Companies plan to keep spending on AI gear, giving clearer demand ahead
How it played out
NVDA: target was not reached
Lyra published NVDA at 182.99 on 2025-10-20, with expected growth of 26% and a target of 230.56. The thesis pointed to leadership in artificial intelligence chips, rising data center demand, a recent pullback that looked like it was stabilizing, TSMC demand for advanced packaging, and continued spending on artificial intelligence gear.
Inside the window, NVDA reached a peak of 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 15.9% gain. That was below the target. The target was never reached. The stock ended at 186.23 on 2026-01-18. The thesis partially played out, but the rebound stopped short.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-19, Nvidia reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $57 billion and data center revenue of $51.2 billion. On 2025-11-20, press coverage said Nvidia discussed a Vera Rubin launch in the third quarter of 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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