Track record · closed signal

Apple Inc. (AAPL) — closed signal from October 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AAPL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$252.05 Published $289.57 Target $255.53 Window close $288.62 Peak
$245.52 – $254.51Entry zone — fair-value band
$252.05Published — price the day we called it
$289.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$288.62Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$255.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$288.62
peak on December 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+14.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$255.53
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 19, 2025 – January 17, 2026

The thesis — published October 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$289.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$245.52 – $254.51
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$252.05
published October 19, 2025
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Apple's recent pullback has cooled short-term excitement. Solid growth in services and a better iPhone upgrade cycle set up the next move. The FT says iPhone 17 could spark the strongest phone demand since the pandemic. Berkshire selling some shares reminds investors to mind price. On down days, trading shows lots more people are buying than usual. Over the next 0-3 months, a steady rebound toward the recent average price looks reasonable.

Primary drivers

  • Next iPhone could lift unit sales more than recent years
  • Services bring steady profits and strong cash generation
  • Recent pullback cooled the stock; buying interest is improving
  • Berkshire's sale is a reminder to stay price-aware

How it played out

AAPL: thesis nearly reached target but missed

Lyra published AAPL at 252.05 on 2025-10-19 with 15% expected growth over the short term. The thesis pointed to a cooler pullback, services profits, a better iPhone upgrade cycle, buying interest on down days, and Berkshire's sale as a price-awareness reminder. It expected a rebound toward 289.57 over 0-3 months.

Inside the window, AAPL rose to 288.62 on 2025-12-03, with a 14.5% peak gain. It stayed below the target. By 2026-01-17, it ended at 255.53. The thesis mostly played out on direction and size, but the published target was not reached.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-30, Apple reported September-quarter revenue of $102.5 billion and record iPhone and Services revenue. The same day, Tim Cook forecast 10% to 12% revenue growth for the December quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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