Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$93.87 Published $110.46 Target $103.82 Window close $104.98 Peak
$92.47 – $94.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$93.87Published — price the day we called it
$110.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$104.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$103.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$104.98
peak on January 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$103.82
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 19, 2025 – January 17, 2026

The thesis — published October 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$110.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$92.47 – $94.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$93.87
published October 19, 2025
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab is gaining speed. In Q3, customers added $134.4B in new assets, up 48% from last year, easing worries about clients moving cash and making profits easier to predict. The price trend looks healthier as buying interest picks up, the recent average price rises, and activity is stronger than usual. With investors rewarding finance firms that beat, Schwab's scale and steady inflows could help in the next 0-3 months. Pullbacks look buyable.

Primary drivers

  • Record new assets show strong customer trust and steady growth
  • Less cash moving around means clearer, more reliable profits ahead
  • Uptrend with stronger buying and a rising recent average price
  • Strong finance results could raise how investors value Schwab

How it played out

SCHW: thesis partly played out, target missed

Lyra published SCHW on 2025-10-19 at $93.87 with expected growth of 18% and a target of $110.46. The thesis pointed to $134.4B in Q3 new assets, up 48% from last year, less cash movement, a healthier price trend, stronger buying, and finance results that could lift how investors valued Schwab.

Inside the window from 2025-10-19 to 2026-01-17, SCHW rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $104.98 on 2026-01-16, a 11.8% gain. It ended at $103.82. The thesis partly played out. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On November 6, 2025, Barron's reported that Schwab would buy Forge Global in a transaction valued at approximately $660 million, with $45 per share in cash. The transaction was expected to close in the first half of 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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