T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — closed signal from October 18, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 16, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 3% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 18, 2025
T-Mobile looks steady after a quiet spell and buying interest appears stronger than usual. The 16% dividend raise to $1.02 shows management confidence and could draw more income-focused investors. Its lead in 5G and steady home internet growth support a slow move up over the next three months if price strength returns. Main risks are tougher price competition, a weaker economy, and shifting headlines.
Primary drivers
- Buying interest looks stronger than usual after a calm price period
- 16% dividend increase to $1.02 shows confidence and draws more buyers
- Strong 5G network and steady home internet sign-ups keep sales growing
- Positive mood and automatic buying from investment funds can add demand
How it played out
TMUS: the target was never reached
Lyra published TMUS at $228.20 on 2025-10-18 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth toward $263.41. The thesis pointed to stronger buying interest after a calm price period, a 16% dividend increase to $1.02, 5G strength, steady home internet sign-ups, and possible demand from investment funds.
Inside the window, TMUS peaked at $229.40 on 2025-10-20, a 0.5% gain. That stayed below the $263.41 target. It ended the window at $186.32 on 2026-01-16. The thesis missed. Price strength did not return in the way the published setup required.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-23, T-Mobile reported third-quarter results. Revenue rose to $21.95 billion, earnings were $2.41 per share, and the company said it added over one million postpaid phone subscribers. On the same date, reports said T-Mobile raised its full-year capital spending forecast from $9.5 billion to $10 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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