Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from October 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$93.88 – $96.84Entry zone — fair-value band

$96.49Published — price the day we called it

$111.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$124.17Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$118.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 54 days.

Peak price

$124.17

peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+28.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$118.04

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

October 18, 2025 – January 16, 2026

The thesis — published October 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$111.27

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$93.88 – $96.84

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$96.49

published October 18, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup looks washed out and could rebound, with more buyers showing up than usual. Early third-quarter results across big companies have been solid, which often helps banks as worry fades and investors return to the sector. The plan is to buy near $95-$98 and get more confident if it can push and hold above $99. Main risks over the next three months: a softer economy or credit troubles.

Primary drivers

Price looks weak near its recent average price, with higher-than-usual buying
Early third-quarter results are solid, which tends to help bank stocks
Improving investor mood can lift how the market values the company today
Keep watch on the economy and loan losses, which could pressure the stock

How it played out

C: target reached in 54 days

Lyra published C at $96.49 on 2025-10-18 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to a washed-out setup, higher-than-usual buying, solid early third-quarter results across big companies, and better investor mood for banks. It also said a softer economy or credit troubles were the main risks over the next three months.

Inside the window, C reached a peak of $124.17 on 2026-01-06, above the $111.27 target. The target was reached in 54 days. The peak gain was 28.7%. The stock ended the window at $118.04. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Citigroup reported fourth-quarter results. Reuters reported net income of $2.5 billion, revenue of $19.9 billion, and investment banking fees of $1.29 billion. On the same date, MarketWatch reported that the quarter included a $1.2 billion loss tied to the planned sale of AO Citibank.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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