Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$93.87 Published $109.52 Target $103.82 Window close $104.98 Peak
$91.48 – $95.46Entry zone — fair-value band
$93.87Published — price the day we called it
$109.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$104.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$103.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 69% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$104.98
peak on January 16, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$103.82
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 18, 2025 – January 16, 2026

The thesis — published October 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$109.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$91.48 – $95.46
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$93.87
published October 18, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab is seeing steady investor buying and positive mood, backed by solid business results. In Q3, it brought in $134.4B of new client money, up 48%, showing momentum. Analysts think the shares are worth about $109.60, above today's price, leaving room to rise. With recent bank updates easing credit worries, the stock could trend upward over the next three months as more investors step in.

Primary drivers

  • Buying activity above normal and a clearly upbeat mood among investors
  • Q3 brought in $134.4B of new client money, a strong inflow signal
  • Analyst value near $109.60 is above today's price, suggesting upside
  • Recent bank news eased credit worries, helping more money come to Schwab

How it played out

SCHW: thesis partially played out

Lyra published SCHW at $93.87 on 2025-10-18 with a short-term thesis for 17% growth. The thesis pointed to buying activity above normal, upbeat investor mood, Q3 new client money of $134.4B, analyst value near $109.60, and recent bank news that had eased credit worries.

Inside the window, SCHW rose but did not reach the $109.52 target. Its peak was $104.98 on 2026-01-16, with a peak gain of 11.8%. It ended at $103.82. The price moved in the expected direction, but it stayed below the target. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-14, Barron's reported Schwab's October monthly activity, including $44.4B in core net new assets. On 2025-12-12, Barron's reported Schwab's November monthly activity, including $40.4B in core net new assets.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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