NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 18, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 16, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 18, 2025
Nvidia's price has cooled off and is sitting near its recent average price, which often sets up the next leg higher when the business story is strong. A major bank just raised its view to Buy with a $320 target, backing Nvidia's lead in AI chips. Buyer interest looks ready to turn up. Intel is a threat, but demand looks clear for now. In markets like this, top names often bounce back within about 3 months.
Primary drivers
- Price cooled near recent average; mood and business trends look positive.
- Large bank raised rating to Buy and set a $320 price target.
- Leading supplier of AI chips with strong, visible demand from big customers.
- Watching rivals like Intel; staying alert to any share loss or delays.
How it played out
NVDA: target not reached after a partial rise
Lyra published NVDA at 183.21 on 2025-10-18 with an expected 30% gain to 238.16. The thesis pointed to a cooled price near its recent average, positive mood and business trends, a large bank's Buy rating with a 320 target, visible demand for artificial intelligence chips, and the risk from Intel.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 15.8% peak gain. It never reached 238.16. The stock ended at 186.23 on 2026-01-16, only slightly above the publication price. The thesis partially played out, but the target missed.
What happened during the window
On November 19, 2025, Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $57 billion and data center revenue of $51.2 billion. On December 15, 2025, Wired reported that Nvidia released the Nemotron 3 family of open models with data and tools for engineers.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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