Track record · closed signal

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — closed signal from October 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 15, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TMUS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$227.25 Published $257.79 Target $190.66 Window close $229.40 Peak
$222.79 – $226.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$227.25Published — price the day we called it
$257.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$229.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$190.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$229.40
peak on October 20, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$190.66
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 17, 2025 – January 15, 2026

The thesis — published October 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$257.79
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$222.79 – $226.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$227.25
published October 17, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

T-Mobile looks temporarily beaten down, creating a short-term opening. Reports point to strong 5G advantages and ongoing spending to keep that edge. Noise from rivals, including AT&T headlines, may fade. If customer counts and average revenue per customer steady up, the next 0-3 months could see a recovery. Wait for steadier trends before taking a bigger position.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down right now, which can create a near-term chance.
  • Holds a clear edge in 5G coverage and speed versus rivals.
  • Keeps investing to widen its network lead and improve service.
  • Negative headlines from other carriers may fade and lift sentiment.

How it played out

TMUS: the target was never reached

Lyra published TMUS on 2025-10-17 at 227.25. The thesis expected 14% growth toward 257.79 over the short-term window. It pointed to a beaten-down price, a 5G coverage and speed edge, continued network spending, and the chance that negative carrier headlines would fade.

Inside the window, TMUS peaked at 229.40 on 2025-10-20, with a peak gain of 0.9%. It never reached 257.79. By 2026-01-15, it ended at 190.66. The thesis missed on price action, even though the stock did briefly rise after publication.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-23, T-Mobile reported third-quarter results. Investors.com reported revenue of $21.95 billion, adjusted earnings of $2.41 per share, more than 1 million postpaid phone subscriber additions, and 506,000 wireless high-speed internet subscriber additions.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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