Track record · closed signal

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) — closed signal from October 17, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 15, 2026 — +5.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NWBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$11.77 Published $12.96 Target $12.38 Window close $12.91 Peak
$11.41 – $11.60Entry zone — fair-value band
$11.77Published — price the day we called it
$12.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$12.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$12.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 81% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+5.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$12.38
last close inside the window, ended January 15, 2026
Peak price
$12.91
peak on December 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$12.96
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$11.41 – $11.60
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$11.77
published October 17, 2025
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NWBI looks like a solid bank caught in a rough week for regional lenders. The price fell about 5.6% on worries about loan problems at other banks, not due to bad news from NWBI. If those fears calm, the stock could recover. Its finances and customer base seem steadier than many peers, and the recent slide left shares looking beaten down. If the Fed slows pulling cash from markets, that could offer a small lift.

Primary drivers

  • Share price fell sharply, setting up a possible short-term rebound soon for investors
  • Financial health appears stronger than many similar regional banks right now
  • Drop was driven by industry loan fears, not by company-specific news last week
  • If the Fed slows pulling cash from markets, bank stocks may benefit in coming months

How it played out

NWBI: rebound came close, but target was not reached

Lyra published NWBI at $11.77 on 2025-10-17 with an expected gain of 12%. The thesis pointed to a sharp share-price fall, stronger financial health than similar regional banks, industry loan fears rather than company-specific news, and a possible lift if the Fed slowed pulling cash from markets.

Inside the 2025-10-17 to 2026-01-15 window, NWBI rose to $12.91 on 2025-12-11. That was a 9.7% peak gain, but it stayed below the $12.96 target. It ended at $12.38. The rebound mostly played out, but the published target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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