First Horizon Corporation (FHN) — closed signal from October 17, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 15, 2026 — +22% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 54 days.
The thesis — published October 17, 2025
First Horizon fell hard after worries about deposits, and the stock looks beaten down. A key profit measure topped Wall Street's estimates, showing the core business still earns well. Fear grew after other regional banks reported loan issues, pushing this lower. The idea is a careful, step-by-step buy for a bounce over the next 0-3 months, keeping position sizes modest while panic stays high.
Primary drivers
- Shares plunged and now look very beaten down after a fast fall.
- Profit per share beat forecasts, suggesting the core business is holding up.
- News about loan troubles at other regional banks increased fear in the group.
- If fear cools, the price may drift back toward more typical levels.
How it played out
FHN: target reached in 54 days
Lyra published FHN at 20.03 on 2025-10-17 with expected growth of 16% and a target of 23.09. The thesis pointed to a fast fall that left the shares looking beaten down, a profit per share beat versus Wall Street forecasts, fear after loan issues at other regional banks, and a possible bounce if that fear cooled.
Inside the 2025-10-17 to 2026-01-15 window, FHN reached the target in 54 days. The peak was 24.91 on 2026-01-09, with a peak gain of 24.3%. It ended at 24.44. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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