Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from October 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 15, 2026 — +0.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$176.64 Published $220.80 Target $177.07 Window close $207.52 Peak
$174.00 – $177.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$176.64Published — price the day we called it
$220.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$207.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$177.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+0.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$177.07
last close inside the window, ended January 15, 2026
Peak price
$207.52
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$220.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$174.00 – $177.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$176.64
published October 17, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is pausing after a big run but still leads in AI software. Recent news is positive, including a healthcare deal with OneMedNet that widens its potential customer base. The price has been trading in a tight range, and a move above $187 could attract more buyers. Momentum looks very low, which often precedes rebounds. Buying in steps aims for a return toward earlier highs over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Short-term weakness within a strong, ongoing AI growth story
  • OneMedNet deal opens more healthcare customers and new revenue paths
  • Tight price range; a move above $187 could draw in fresh buyers
  • Positive investor mood raises odds that gains can keep going

How it played out

PLTR: partial rally stopped short of target

Lyra published PLTR at $176.64 on 2025-10-17 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to short-term weakness inside a strong artificial intelligence software story, the OneMedNet healthcare deal, a tight trading range, and a possible move above $187 drawing in fresh buyers.

Inside the window, PLTR rose to a peak of $207.52 on 2025-11-03, a 17.5% gain. It stayed below the $220.80 target. By 2026-01-15, it ended at $177.07. The thesis partly played out because the stock did rally, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-03, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion and raised its full-year revenue outlook to $4.396 billion to $4.4 billion. On 2025-11-03, Investopedia also reported that U.S. commercial revenue rose 121% to $397 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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