Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 17, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 15, 2026 — +9.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$93.48 Published $107.20 Target $102.76 Window close $104.76 Peak
$91.48 – $93.47Entry zone — fair-value band
$93.48Published — price the day we called it
$107.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$104.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$102.76Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 81% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+9.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$102.76
last close inside the window, ended January 15, 2026
Peak price
$104.76
peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$107.20
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$91.48 – $93.47
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$93.48
published October 17, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks ready for a short-term bounce. The stock has fallen enough that sellers seem worn out, and fresh company news helps: its net profit margin rose to 31.4%, meaning it keeps 31 cents of each dollar in revenue, stronger than last year. While some bank stocks face worries about loans, Schwab's large size and steady profits make it look safer. If customer money flows calm down, a 0-3 month recovery is possible.

Primary drivers

  • Profit margin climbed to 31.4%, showing stronger earnings efficiency.
  • Price slide looks overdone, hinting at a near-term turn upward.
  • Large size and trusted brand help cushion the company from sector shocks.
  • Investors view Schwab more favorably than smaller regional bank rivals.

How it played out

SCHW: target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW at $93.48 on 2025-10-17 with expected growth of 15%. The thesis looked for a short-term bounce. It pointed to a 31.4% net profit margin, an overdone price slide, the company's large size and brand, and a view that investors favored Schwab over smaller regional bank rivals.

Inside the 2025-10-17 to 2026-01-15 window, SCHW rose but did not reach the $107.20 target. It peaked at $104.76 on 2026-01-06, a 12.1% gain. It ended at $102.76. The thesis partially played out. The stock moved in the expected direction, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On November 6, 2025, Schwab announced a deal to buy Forge Global for about $660 million. The article described Forge as a platform for private-company shares.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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