Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from October 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 15, 2026 — +10.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.81 Published $36.85 Target $37.47 Window close $38.23 Peak
$33.19 – $33.58Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.81Published — price the day we called it
$36.85Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.23Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$37.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

At window close
+10.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$37.47
last close inside the window, ended January 15, 2026
Peak price
$38.23
peak on January 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
34

The thesis — published October 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$36.85
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$33.19 – $33.58
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.81
published October 17, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust is a steady real estate landlord for senior and healthcare sites. Shares slipped recently, but the business looks sound. They just bought two care facilities in the UK for about $27M, adding new rent streams, and the stock price sits a bit below one careful value estimate, giving some cushion. A new sustainability report points to disciplined management. The recent dip may offer income now plus room for a gentle rebound.

Primary drivers

  • UK purchases add properties and rent, widening the mix of care facilities.
  • Share price sits slightly under one fair value view, leaving a small buffer.
  • Recent weakness in a typically calm stock could set up a practical entry.
  • New sustainability report suggests careful, well-run operations overall.

How it played out

CTRE: target reached in 34 days

Lyra published CTRE at $33.81 on 2025-10-17 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to CareTrust as a steady landlord for senior and healthcare sites. It cited UK purchases of about $27M, added rent streams, a share price slightly under one fair value view, recent weakness, and a sustainability report that suggested careful operations.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $36.85 target in 34 days. It later peaked at $38.23 on 2026-01-09, with a peak gain of 13.1%. By 2026-01-15, it ended at $37.47. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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