Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 15, 2026 — +54.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$138.54 – $141.04Entry zone — fair-value band

$141.08Published — price the day we called it

$169.01Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$229.57Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$217.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 54 days.

At window close

+54.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+62.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$217.47

last close inside the window, ended January 15, 2026

Peak price

$229.57

peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published October 17, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$169.01

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$138.54 – $141.04

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$141.08

published October 17, 2025

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam Research looks temporarily knocked down after a recent slide, but mood around the stock remains strong. TSMC now expects its 2025 sales to grow in the mid-30% range thanks to AI needs, which should boost demand for Lam's chip-making tools. An analyst service kept its Buy view, adding confidence. This pullback seems like a pause, and if trading activity improves, shares could rebound over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

AI demand and TSMC's higher outlook point to more orders for tools
Recent pullback may offer better short-term upside than downside
Supportive analyst views, including a recently reaffirmed Buy rating
Recovery in chip equipment spending could lift results and shares

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 54 days

Lyra published LRCX at $141.08 on 2025-10-17. The thesis expected 20% growth to $169.01 over a short-term window. It pointed to demand tied to artificial intelligence, TSMC's higher outlook, a recent pullback, supportive analyst views, and a possible recovery in chip equipment spending.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 54 days. It kept rising after that. The peak was $229.57 on 2026-01-15, with a 62.7% gain. The stock ended the window at $217.47. The thesis played out, and the move went well past the published target.

What happened during the window

On October 22, 2025, Lam Research reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share on sales of $5.32 billion, and guided the current quarter to $1.15 per share on sales of $5.2 billion. On December 19, 2025, Investors.com reported that Oppenheimer reiterated an outperform rating and set a 200 price target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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