Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 17, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 15, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 54 days.
The thesis — published October 17, 2025
Lam Research looks temporarily knocked down after a recent slide, but mood around the stock remains strong. TSMC now expects its 2025 sales to grow in the mid-30% range thanks to AI needs, which should boost demand for Lam's chip-making tools. An analyst service kept its Buy view, adding confidence. This pullback seems like a pause, and if trading activity improves, shares could rebound over the next 0-3 months.
Primary drivers
- AI demand and TSMC's higher outlook point to more orders for tools
- Recent pullback may offer better short-term upside than downside
- Supportive analyst views, including a recently reaffirmed Buy rating
- Recovery in chip equipment spending could lift results and shares
How it played out
LRCX: target reached in 54 days
Lyra published LRCX at $141.08 on 2025-10-17. The thesis expected 20% growth to $169.01 over a short-term window. It pointed to demand tied to artificial intelligence, TSMC's higher outlook, a recent pullback, supportive analyst views, and a possible recovery in chip equipment spending.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 54 days. It kept rising after that. The peak was $229.57 on 2026-01-15, with a 62.7% gain. The stock ended the window at $217.47. The thesis played out, and the move went well past the published target.
What happened during the window
On October 22, 2025, Lam Research reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share on sales of $5.32 billion, and guided the current quarter to $1.15 per share on sales of $5.2 billion. On December 19, 2025, Investors.com reported that Oppenheimer reiterated an outperform rating and set a 200 price target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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