Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from October 16, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 14, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 16, 2025
Palantir's new AI partnership with Snowflake should help it reach more customers and shows the platform is trusted. Investors liked the news, and the business is still growing well. The share price has dropped enough that a near-term bounce is possible. The recent average price is flattening, and trading is heavier than usual, even if some momentum signs are slower. If strength appears in 0-3 months, it could return to recent price ranges.
Primary drivers
- Snowflake partnership widens reach and confirms the product is valuable to customers
- After a pullback, the price looks steadier; recent average price is flattening
- Sales and profits are rising, showing a healthy, growing core business
- Trading remains heavy, even though some momentum signs are still catching up
How it played out
PLTR: target was not reached
Lyra published PLTR at 182.39 on 2025-10-16 with 30% expected growth and a 237.11 target. The thesis pointed to the Snowflake partnership, wider customer reach, a steadier price after a pullback, rising sales and profits, and heavy trading while some momentum signs still lagged.
Inside the window, PLTR rose to 207.52 on 2025-11-03, a 13.8% peak gain. That was a positive move, but it stayed below 237.11. The stock ended at 178.40 on 2026-01-14. The thesis partially played out on direction, then missed the target.
What happened during the window
On November 3, 2025, Palantir reported third-quarter results and raised its full-year revenue outlook. Investopedia reported revenue of $1.18 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.21.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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