Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from October 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$228.95 Published $274.20 Target $301.89 Window close $310.64 Peak
$221.13 – $229.10Entry zone — fair-value band
$228.95Published — price the day we called it
$274.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$310.64Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$301.89Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 55 days.

Peak price
$310.64
peak on January 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+35.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$301.89
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
55
Window
October 16, 2025 – January 14, 2026

The thesis — published October 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$274.20
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$221.13 – $229.10
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$228.95
published October 16, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC just posted a 39% profit jump and sounded upbeat about AI demand. That usually means chip makers will spend more on factory tools soon, which helps Applied Materials win more orders. Recent price action looks healthy, and trading has been active, suggesting more buyers than usual. In the next few months, AI-driven spending should matter most, giving better visibility into orders and the backlog.

Primary drivers

  • TSMC's AI-focused spending hints at more orders for chip-making tools soon.
  • Recent average price trend looks positive, drawing steady interest from buyers.
  • Heavier trading than usual suggests strong buying interest from many investors.
  • Clearer view of orders over the next quarter supports near-term business.

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 55 days

Lyra published AMAT at 228.95 on 2025-10-16 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to TSMC's 39% profit jump, artificial intelligence demand, healthier recent price action, heavier trading, and a clearer view of orders over the next quarter.

Inside the window, AMAT reached the 274.2 target in 55 days. The peak was 310.64 on 2026-01-13, with a peak gain of 35.7%. It ended the window at 301.89. The thesis played out, and the stock went past the target before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On November 13, 2025, Applied Materials reported adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share on $6.8 billion in revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter. The company also guided to $2.18 per share and $6.85 billion in revenue for its fiscal first quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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