Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from October 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$256.55 Published $302.53 Target $335.84 Window close $340.49 Peak
$249.67 – $256.66Entry zone — fair-value band
$256.55Published — price the day we called it
$302.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$340.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$335.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

Peak price
$340.49
peak on January 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+32.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$335.84
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
34
Window
October 16, 2025 – January 14, 2026

The thesis — published October 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$302.53
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$249.67 – $256.66
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$256.55
published October 16, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet looks steady as it signs more AI deals, including weaving Gemini into tools from Salesforce and JumpCloud. Sales grew 14% compared to last year, showing money is still coming in. The trend is not fully strong yet, but the recent average price is edging higher and lots more people are buying than usual. Over the next 0-3 months, start near $250-$257 and add on early strength to aim for a move higher out of this range.

Primary drivers

  • More companies plug Gemini into their tools, boosting real use across teams
  • Sales rose 14% from last year, showing solid business momentum
  • Recent average price is climbing and more buyers are stepping in
  • Plan to add shares only if price shows clear, early strength with strong trading activity

How it played out

GOOGL: target reached in 34 days

Lyra published GOOGL on 2025-10-16 at $256.55, with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to more Gemini integrations in company tools, sales growth of 14% from the prior year, a rising recent average price, and stronger buying activity. It framed the trade as short-term and expected early strength from the $250 to $257 area.

Inside the window, GOOGL reached the $302.53 target in 34 days. The stock later peaked at $340.49 on 2026-01-13, with a peak gain of 32.7%. It ended the window at $335.84. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-29, Alphabet reported third-quarter revenue of $102.3 billion, up 16% from the prior year, and earnings per share of $2.87. The report said quarterly revenue passed $100 billion for the first time.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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