Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from October 16, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 14, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 21 days.
The thesis — published October 16, 2025
Demand for memory used in AI is still strong. A big chip maker just reported much higher profits, showing companies keep spending on AI gear, which should help Micron's high-end memory and newer DDR5 products sell at better prices. Recent average price is rising, trading activity is healthy, and buyers keep stepping in on dips. In the next 0-3 months, better product mix and pricing could push the uptrend to continue.
Primary drivers
- TSMC's strong results point to ongoing heavy AI spending across customers
- Shift toward HBM and DDR5 lifts average selling prices and margins
- Recent average price is rising, with strong trading activity
- Buyers keep stepping in on dips even as some slower signals lag
How it played out
MU: target reached in 21 days
Lyra published MU at $197.32 on 2025-10-16, with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to strong demand for memory used in artificial intelligence, TSMC's strong results, a shift toward HBM and DDR5, rising average price, healthy trading activity, and buyers stepping in on dips.
Inside the window, MU reached the $240.63 target in 21 days. It kept rising to a peak of $351.23 on 2026-01-13, with a peak gain of 78%. The window ended at $333.35. The thesis played out, and the move went well beyond the published target.
What happened during the window
On Dec. 3, 2025, Micron announced it would wind down the Crucial consumer business by the end of February 2026. On Dec. 17, 2025, Micron reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $13.64 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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