NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 16, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 14, 2026 — +0.5% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 16, 2025
NVIDIA is still the go-to builder of the hardware that powers AI. Strong updates from TSMC and continued spending by large cloud companies suggest demand should stay firm. The stock looks beaten down after a pullback, and trading is heavier than usual. If the recent average price and trend start turning up, shares may recover over the next 0-3 months as chip makers take the lead again.
Primary drivers
- TSMC's outlook shows customers still want many AI chips, aiding NVIDIA
- Shares look beaten down while trading is heavier than usual lately
- Leads in chips, software, and networking that power modern AI systems
- If more stocks rise together, NVDA may move back toward its uptrend
How it played out
NVDA: thesis partly played out, target missed
Lyra published NVDA at 182.22 on 2025-10-16 with expected growth of 24%. The thesis pointed to demand for chips used in artificial intelligence systems, TSMC's outlook, cloud-company spending, heavier trading, and a possible return toward the uptrend over 0-3 months.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 16.4% peak gain. It stayed below the 225.94 target. The stock ended at 183.14 on 2026-01-14, close to the publication price. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-18, AP reported a Microsoft, Anthropic, and Nvidia infrastructure deal in which Nvidia would invest up to $10 billion in Anthropic. On 2025-11-20, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's fiscal third-quarter revenue of $57.006 billion and data center revenue of $51.215 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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