NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from October 16, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 14, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 16, 2025
NVIDIA is still the go-to builder of the hardware that powers AI. Strong updates from TSMC and continued spending by large cloud companies suggest demand should stay firm. The stock looks beaten down after a pullback, and trading is heavier than usual. If the recent average price and trend start turning up, shares may recover over the next 0-3 months as chip makers take the lead again.
Primary drivers
- TSMC's outlook shows customers still want many AI chips, aiding NVIDIA
- Shares look beaten down while trading is heavier than usual lately
- Leads in chips, software, and networking that power modern AI systems
- If more stocks rise together, NVDA may move back toward its uptrend
How it played out
NVDA: thesis partly played out, target missed
Lyra published NVDA at 182.22 on 2025-10-16 with expected growth of 24%. The thesis pointed to demand for chips used in artificial intelligence systems, TSMC's outlook, cloud-company spending, heavier trading, and a possible return toward the uptrend over 0-3 months.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 16.4% peak gain. It stayed below the 225.94 target. The stock ended at 183.14 on 2026-01-14, close to the publication price. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-18, AP reported a Microsoft, Anthropic, and Nvidia infrastructure deal in which Nvidia would invest up to $10 billion in Anthropic. On 2025-11-20, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's fiscal third-quarter revenue of $57.006 billion and data center revenue of $51.215 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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