Track record · closed signal

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) — closed signal from October 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

EDU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$53.79 – $55.26Entry zone — fair-value band

$55.31Published — price the day we called it

$68.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$60.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$57.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$60.88

peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+10.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$57.71

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 15, 2025 – January 13, 2026

The thesis — published October 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$68.38

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$53.79 – $55.26

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$55.31

published October 15, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

New Oriental may see a short-term move because many investors are preparing for the Oct 28 earnings report. The recent average price trend looks better and there is lots more buying than usual, which helps even if other signals are mixed. Recent company filings and the date news shape expectations, while the AI-in-education story adds support. China policy risks remain, but momentum could last for the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Oct 28 earnings date may trigger a sharp, short-term move in shares
Improving recent average price and lots more buyers than usual
Rising interest in AI tools for learning boosts investor attention
Early buying before results helps keep demand firm into earnings

How it played out

EDU: target was not reached in the window

Lyra published EDU at 55.31 on 2025-10-15 with a short-term thesis for 25% expected growth. The thesis pointed to the Oct 28 earnings date, a better recent average price trend, unusually heavy buying, interest in artificial intelligence tools for learning, and early demand before results. China policy risk was still named as a concern.

Inside the window, EDU rose but did not reach the 68.38 target. The stock peaked at 60.88 on 2025-10-27, with a 10.1% peak gain. It never got there. By 2026-01-13, EDU ended at 57.71. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All EDU signals