Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) — closed signal from July 11, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 9, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 66 days.
The thesis — published July 11, 2025
New U.S. tax credits for certain types of coal, announced on 4 July, lifted Peabody shares 13 % in a week. Buying interest is stronger than usual and the recent average price is rising, yet the stock still looks cheap: at $14.84 investors pay only about two-and-a-half times the companys yearly operating cash and get a double-digit cash return. If Asian coal prices stay firm the share could approach $20 within three months, though wild moves in commodity prices and ongoing environmental concerns mean caution is still needed.
Primary drivers
- New tax credit boosts money earned from steel-making coal.
- Rising recent average price and heavy buying show speedier upward move.
- Shares still look cheap and throw off plenty of cash, limiting downside.
- Many option bets sit at $20, which could pull the stock toward that level.
How it played out
BTU: target reached in 66 days
Lyra published BTU at $14.74 on 2025-07-11 with expected growth of 35%. The thesis pointed to new U.S. tax credits for certain coal types, stronger buying interest, a rising recent average price, cheap cash-flow valuation, firm Asian coal prices, and option interest near $20. The target was $19.77 within three months.
Inside the window, BTU reached $19.77 in 66 days. It kept rising after that and peaked at $33.20 on 2025-10-09, with a peak gain of 125.2%. The window ended at $31.76. The published thesis played out and then went well past its target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-19, Peabody said it terminated its agreement to buy Anglo American's Australian steelmaking coal assets. Anglo American said it would start arbitration and seek damages.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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