Track record · closed signal

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) — closed signal from July 11, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 9, 2025 — +115.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BTU price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$14.74 Published $19.77 Target $31.76 Window close $33.20 Peak
$14.31 – $14.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$14.74Published — price the day we called it
$19.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$33.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$31.76Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 66 days.

At window close
+115.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+125.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+7.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$31.76
last close inside the window, ended October 9, 2025
Peak price
$33.20
peak on October 9, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
66

The thesis — published July 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+35%
over the measurement window
Target price
$19.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$14.31 – $14.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$14.74
published July 11, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

New U.S. tax credits for certain types of coal, announced on 4 July, lifted Peabody shares 13 % in a week. Buying interest is stronger than usual and the recent average price is rising, yet the stock still looks cheap: at $14.84 investors pay only about two-and-a-half times the companys yearly operating cash and get a double-digit cash return. If Asian coal prices stay firm the share could approach $20 within three months, though wild moves in commodity prices and ongoing environmental concerns mean caution is still needed.

Primary drivers

  • New tax credit boosts money earned from steel-making coal.
  • Rising recent average price and heavy buying show speedier upward move.
  • Shares still look cheap and throw off plenty of cash, limiting downside.
  • Many option bets sit at $20, which could pull the stock toward that level.

How it played out

BTU: target reached in 66 days

Lyra published BTU at $14.74 on 2025-07-11 with expected growth of 35%. The thesis pointed to new U.S. tax credits for certain coal types, stronger buying interest, a rising recent average price, cheap cash-flow valuation, firm Asian coal prices, and option interest near $20. The target was $19.77 within three months.

Inside the window, BTU reached $19.77 in 66 days. It kept rising after that and peaked at $33.20 on 2025-10-09, with a peak gain of 125.2%. The window ended at $31.76. The published thesis played out and then went well past its target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-19, Peabody said it terminated its agreement to buy Anglo American's Australian steelmaking coal assets. Anglo American said it would start arbitration and seek damages.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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