Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from October 15, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$51.83 Published $57.74 Target $54.54 Window close $57.55 Peak
$50.97 – $51.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$51.83Published — price the day we called it
$57.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$54.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$54.54
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 15, 2025 – January 13, 2026

The thesis — published October 15, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$57.74
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$50.97 – $51.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$51.83
published October 15, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock looks ready for a short-term rebound as the price shows signs of turning up and trading is heavier than usual after it beat expectations last quarter. Investment banking fees jumped 43 percent, and recent bank data shows big investors put the most money into stocks since 2022. Swings in interest rates and loan losses are risks, but recent strength points to a steady move up over the next 0-3 months. That mix often supports gradual gains.

Primary drivers

  • Last quarter topped expectations, and investment banking fees rose 43%.
  • Shares fell too far, and the recent average price is turning upward.
  • Large investors led the biggest move of money into stocks since 2022.
  • Unusually heavy trading suggests stronger buying interest than usual.

How it played out

BAC: thesis nearly reached target but missed

Lyra published BAC at 51.83 on 2025-10-15 with a short-term 12% expected gain. The thesis pointed to a prior quarter above expectations, investment banking fees up 43%, a recent turn upward in the average price, heavy trading, and large investors moving money into stocks.

Inside the window, BAC rose as high as 57.55 on 2026-01-05. The target was 57.74, so it stayed below the target. It ended the window at 54.54 on 2026-01-13. The thesis partly played out. Price moved in the expected direction, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-15, Bank of America reported third-quarter earnings and revenue above analyst expectations. The report said profit rose 23% to $8.47 billion and investment banking fees rose 43% to $2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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