Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$95.91 Published $117.00 Target $85.41 Window close $100.35 Peak
$94.50 – $96.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$95.91Published — price the day we called it
$117.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$85.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$100.35
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$85.41
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 15, 2025 – January 13, 2026

The thesis — published October 15, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$117.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$94.50 – $96.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$95.91
published October 15, 2025
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber's stock has dropped a lot, but trading stays steady and investor interest looks healthy. A new survey found about one in three Americans tried self-driving rides and were happy, which supports Uber's long-term plan. There are risks from the economy and rules. A buy-in-steps plan, with adds only if the price gets back above $100, could set up a rebound over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Shares have fallen hard, but investor mood stays upbeat and steady for now
  • Survey shows many tried self-driving rides and liked them, backing growth hopes
  • Steady trading near recent price area suggests buyers are still showing up
  • Clear path toward stronger profits boosts confidence in the business outlook

How it played out

UBER: the thesis missed the target

Lyra published UBER at $95.91 on 2025-10-15 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to a hard prior drop, steady trading, healthy investor interest, a self-driving ride survey, and a path toward stronger profits. It also said a move back above $100 would matter for the rebound setup over the next 0-3 months.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $100.35 on 2025-11-03, up 4.6%. It stayed below the $117 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-13, it ended at $85.41. The thesis partially caught an early bounce, but the target missed.

What happened during the window

On November 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter revenue of $13.47 billion and gross bookings of $49.7 billion. On November 26, 2025, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi operations in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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