Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from October 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 13, 2026 — -10.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$94.50 – $96.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$95.91Published — price the day we called it

$117.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$100.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$85.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-10.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$85.41

last close inside the window, ended January 13, 2026

Peak price

$100.35

peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$117.00

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$94.50 – $96.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$95.91

published October 15, 2025

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber's stock has dropped a lot, but trading stays steady and investor interest looks healthy. A new survey found about one in three Americans tried self-driving rides and were happy, which supports Uber's long-term plan. There are risks from the economy and rules. A buy-in-steps plan, with adds only if the price gets back above $100, could set up a rebound over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Shares have fallen hard, but investor mood stays upbeat and steady for now
Survey shows many tried self-driving rides and liked them, backing growth hopes
Steady trading near recent price area suggests buyers are still showing up
Clear path toward stronger profits boosts confidence in the business outlook

How it played out

UBER: the thesis missed the target

Lyra published UBER at $95.91 on 2025-10-15 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to a hard prior drop, steady trading, healthy investor interest, a self-driving ride survey, and a path toward stronger profits. It also said a move back above $100 would matter for the rebound setup over the next 0-3 months.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $100.35 on 2025-11-03, up 4.6%. It stayed below the $117 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-13, it ended at $85.41. The thesis partially caught an early bounce, but the target missed.

What happened during the window

On November 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter revenue of $13.47 billion and gross bookings of $49.7 billion. On November 26, 2025, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi operations in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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