Blackstone Inc. (BX) — closed signal from July 11, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 9, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published July 11, 2025
Blackstone just raised its cash offer for Warehouse REIT, showing it can quickly put $200 billion in unused funds to work and start earning fees right away. A surge in buying by big investors has pushed the stock steadily higher. Even after the climb, the share price is about 10 % cheaper than its usual level over the past decade. After the July 11 deal news, reaching about $185 in the next three months looks possible, with downside near $150.
Primary drivers
- New bid for Warehouse REIT brings in fresh fees quickly and boosts 2025 earnings path.
- Unusually strong buying pressure puts the stock among the fastest climbers in the S&P 500.
- Price is still about 10 % cheaper than its normal ten-year level, leaving room to rise.
- Heavy trading by large investors signals steady demand for alternative assets.
How it played out
BX: target reached before the window ended
Lyra published BX at $161.63 on July 11, with 17% expected growth and a $186.31 target over the short term. The thesis pointed to the raised Warehouse REIT cash offer, unused funds that could be put to work, strong buying by large investors, a price about 10% cheaper than its usual ten-year level, and downside near $150.
Inside the window, BX peaked at $188.42 on September 18, above the target. The recorded peak gain was 16.6%. No target day was recorded. By October 9, it ended at $159.24. The thesis partly played out: the price reached the area Lyra expected, but it did not hold there.
What happened during the window
On July 24, 2025, Blackstone reported second-quarter results, including $1.21 in distributable earnings per share and $3.71 billion in revenue. On September 8, 2025, the Financial Times reported that Blackstone's Warehouse REIT offer had become unconditional after more than 50% shareholder support.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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