Blackstone Inc. (BX) — closed signal from July 11, 2025
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 9, 2025 — -1.5% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 98% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published July 11, 2025
Blackstone just raised its cash offer for Warehouse REIT, showing it can quickly put $200 billion in unused funds to work and start earning fees right away. A surge in buying by big investors has pushed the stock steadily higher. Even after the climb, the share price is about 10 % cheaper than its usual level over the past decade. After the July 11 deal news, reaching about $185 in the next three months looks possible, with downside near $150.
Primary drivers
- New bid for Warehouse REIT brings in fresh fees quickly and boosts 2025 earnings path.
- Unusually strong buying pressure puts the stock among the fastest climbers in the S&P 500.
- Price is still about 10 % cheaper than its normal ten-year level, leaving room to rise.
- Heavy trading by large investors signals steady demand for alternative assets.
How it played out
BX: target reached before the window ended
Lyra published BX at $161.63 on July 11, with 17% expected growth and a $186.31 target over the short term. The thesis pointed to the raised Warehouse REIT cash offer, unused funds that could be put to work, strong buying by large investors, a price about 10% cheaper than its usual ten-year level, and downside near $150.
Inside the window, BX peaked at $188.42 on September 18, above the target. The recorded peak gain was 16.6%. No target day was recorded. By October 9, it ended at $159.24. The thesis partly played out: the price reached the area Lyra expected, but it did not hold there.
What happened during the window
On July 24, 2025, Blackstone reported second-quarter results, including $1.21 in distributable earnings per share and $3.71 billion in revenue. On September 8, 2025, the Financial Times reported that Blackstone's Warehouse REIT offer had become unconditional after more than 50% shareholder support.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.