Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 15, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.97 – $94.46Entry zone — fair-value band

$94.06Published — price the day we called it

$105.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$104.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$101.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$104.76

peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+11.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$101.18

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

October 15, 2025 – January 13, 2026

The thesis — published October 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$105.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.97 – $94.46

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$94.06

published October 15, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks set for a short-term rebound. The stock has dropped, but its recent average price is turning up and trading shows lots more people are buying than usual, hinting the decline is stabilizing even though one momentum gauge is still soft. Strong results at Morgan Stanley are a good sign for Q4 investor activity. More peers are improving. Higher rates and cash shifting are headwinds, yet sentiment supports a 0-3 month recovery.

Primary drivers

Shares look washed out, and the recent average price is turning up
Strong results at a peer suggest better activity for Schwab's clients
Heavier trading than usual suggests growing buyer interest
Individual investors may move more money into accounts in Q4

How it played out

SCHW: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published SCHW at 94.06 on 2025-10-15, with a short-term thesis for 12% growth toward 105.05. The thesis pointed to shares looking washed out, a recent average price turning up, heavier trading that suggested buyer interest, stronger peer results, and possible Q4 account activity from individual investors.

Inside the window, SCHW rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at 104.76 on 2026-01-06, with an 11.4% gain, then ended the window at 101.18 on 2026-01-13. The direction was right and the move came close. The full target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, The Wall Street Journal reported that Charles Schwab posted third-quarter profit available to common stockholders of $2.28 billion and revenue of $6.14 billion. On the same date, Barron's reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of $1.31 per share and core net new assets of $137.5 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals