T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — closed signal from October 14, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 12, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 14, 2025
T-Mobile holds a strong spot in U.S. wireless and keeps pushing new ideas, like SIM-based ID features built with Glide. The share price looks beat up, even though overall sentiment is decent. Still, the telecom group faces headwinds and price momentum is weak. We prefer buying in small steps on dips and waiting for a steady base. If momentum turns up, a 0-3 month rebound toward the earlier trend looks likely.
Primary drivers
- New SIM-based ID features with Glide that boost security and customer stickiness
- Share price looks beaten down, which could set up a near-term bounce
- Strong market share as the number-two U.S. carrier supports stable cash flow
- Waiting for signs that price momentum improves before getting more positive
How it played out
TMUS: rebound thesis missed the target
Lyra published TMUS at $226.30 on October 14, 2025. The thesis expected 21% growth toward $272.47 over a short-term window. It pointed to SIM-based ID features with Glide, a beaten-down share price, strong U.S. wireless market share, and a need for better price momentum before getting more positive.
Inside the window, TMUS peaked at $229.51 on October 14, 2025, for a 1.4% gain. It never reached $272.47. By January 12, 2026, it ended at $197.51. The rebound thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On October 23, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported T-Mobile's third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $2.41 per share, revenue of $21.95 billion, and over one million postpaid phone subscribers added.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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