Track record · closed signal

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) — closed signal from July 11, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 9, 2025 — +16% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

FIVE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$126.00 – $131.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$130.18Published — price the day we called it

$161.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$157.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$150.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 88% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+16%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+21%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$150.96

last close inside the window, ended October 9, 2025

Peak price

$157.54

peak on October 3, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$161.42

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$126.00 – $131.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$130.18

published July 11, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

After falling 45% this year on worries about weak store sales, the shares are showing early signs of stabilizing. Trading now hints at more buyers stepping in, and with nearly one-fifth of the stock bet against, good news could force quick buying and lift the price. A 10 July report highlighted the goal of expanding to 3,500 stores. If the price ends a day above $133, many see a path up to $160 within three months, while $118 is viewed as a backstop.

Primary drivers

Plan to grow from 1,400 stores today to about 3,500 supports years of expansion.
Recent trading patterns suggest the price has stopped falling and may start rising.
With 18% of shares sold short, any positive news could trigger fast buying.
Analysts say the recent drop left the share price cheaper than its prospects.

How it played out

FIVE: rose 21% but stayed below the target

Lyra published FIVE at $130.18 on 2025-07-11, with expected growth of 24% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to early price stabilization after a 45% fall that year, possible buyer interest, 18% of shares sold short, a path toward $160 if the price ended a day above $133, and a store-growth plan from 1,400 stores to about 3,500.

Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach the $161.42 target. It peaked at $157.54 on 2025-10-03, with a 21% gain. It ended at $150.96 on 2025-10-09. The thesis partially played out. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-28, MarketWatch reported that Five Below had raised its full-year outlook after second-quarter results, with full-year sales expected at $4.44 billion to $4.52 billion and same-store sales expected to rise 5% to 7%.

Five Below raises its full-year outlook, despite 'ever-changing tariff environment'

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All FIVE signals