Track record · closed signal

Walmart Inc. (WMT) — closed signal from October 14, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 12, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

WMT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$103.61 Published $112.70 Target $117.97 Window close $118.84 Peak
$101.59 – $103.58Entry zone — fair-value band
$103.61Published — price the day we called it
$112.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$118.84Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$117.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 50 days.

Peak price
$118.84
peak on January 12, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+14.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$117.97
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
50
Window
October 14, 2025 – January 12, 2026

The thesis — published October 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$112.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$101.59 – $103.58
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$103.61
published October 14, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Walmart just teamed up with OpenAI to make shopping easier with smart tools. The share price has fallen a lot, and lately there has been lots more buying than usual, which often helps prices stabilize. Some worry about the business trend, but over the next 0-3 months the news and new features could lift sentiment. Buying near today's price aims for a move back toward the top of its recent trading range.

Primary drivers

  • OpenAI deal aims to bring smarter, faster shopping tools to customers
  • Price fell hard recently, making a near-term snapback more likely
  • Recent trading shows many more buyers than usual, a supportive sign
  • News and features rolling out could lift the stock over the next months

How it played out

WMT: target reached in 50 days

Lyra published WMT on 2025-10-14 at 103.61. The thesis expected 9% growth toward 112.70. It pointed to the OpenAI shopping deal, a hard recent price fall, unusually strong buyer activity, and the chance that new shopping features could lift sentiment over 0-3 months.

Inside the window, WMT reached the target in 50 days. It later peaked at 118.84 on 2026-01-12, with a 14.7% gain. The window ended at 117.97. The thesis played out and went past the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-14, Walmart announced shopping through ChatGPT with OpenAI. On 2025-11-20, Walmart reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results and raised its full-year outlook.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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