The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from October 14, 2025
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 12, 2026 — +9.4% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 89% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published October 14, 2025
Schwab's price has been weak, but investor mood is holding up. The company just launched a service for late-stage private companies, opening a new way to grow. This earnings season shows more firms delivering profit gains, which helps the industry. As money shifts back toward strong, trusted platforms, the chances of a move up look better than the downside, making this a reasonable entry for a short-term upswing.
Primary drivers
- New service helping late-stage private companies manage their equity needs
- Recent price was weak, but investor mood toward Schwab stays positive
- Recent earnings show more companies growing profits, lifting the sector
- Trusted brokerage and bank brand with loyal clients and strong reputation
How it played out
SCHW: target stayed out of reach
Lyra published SCHW on 2025-10-14 at 93.13 with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to a new service for late-stage private companies, steady investor mood despite recent price weakness, stronger profit growth across the sector, and Schwab's trusted brokerage and bank brand.
Inside the window, SCHW rose as high as 104.76 on 2026-01-06, a 12.5% peak gain. That was still below the 105.86 target. It ended the window at 101.90 on 2026-01-12. The thesis mostly played out, but it did not fully reach the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter profit of $2.28 billion, adjusted earnings of $1.31 per share, and revenue of $6.14 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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