The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) — closed signal from July 11, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 9, 2025 — -4.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 11, 2025
P&G’s share price is hovering near its long-term average, and even though it has cooled, investor mood is extremely upbeat. The firm still keeps 25 cents of every sales dollar as profit. A July 11 article praised its strength in health-focused products, support that should help if markets get shaky. If the stock climbs past $160, it may revisit $174 within a few months, delivering steady gains plus a 2.4 % dividend. Because P&G sells everyday items like detergent and toothpaste, demand stays solid in all climates, giving the stock a safety feel.
Primary drivers
- P&G can charge enough to keep 25% profit margin even when raw costs swing.
- Price sitting near its long-term average often leads to calm, gradual rebounds.
- Big-money investors remain highly confident in household staples like P&G.
- Unclear interest-rate outlook pushes money toward steady, high-quality stocks.
How it played out
PG: target was not reached
Lyra published PG on 2025-07-11 at $156.32 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to a 25% profit margin, a price near its long-term average, confident large investors in household staples, and an unclear interest-rate outlook that could favor steady, high-quality stocks. It also expected a move past $160 to open the path toward $174 within a few months.
Inside the 2025-07-11 to 2025-10-09 window, PG peaked at $160.55 on 2025-09-17, a 2.7% gain. That stayed below the $169.60 target. It never got there. The stock ended at $149.53, below the publication price. The thesis only partially played out.
What happened during the window
On July 29, 2025, Procter & Gamble reported fiscal fourth-quarter results, with core earnings per share of $1.48 and revenue of $20.9 billion. The same report said P&G had named Shailesh Jejurikar as its next CEO, effective at the start of 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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