Track record · closed signal

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) — closed signal from October 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ELF price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$140.08 Published $168.09 Target $87.02 Window close $141.50 Peak
$136.00 – $140.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$140.08Published — price the day we called it
$168.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$141.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$87.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 5% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$141.50
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$87.02
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 13, 2025 – January 11, 2026

The thesis — published October 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$168.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$136.00 – $140.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$140.08
published October 13, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares look beaten down just as an earnings update approaches. J.P. Morgan highlighted the company on Oct 10 as a likely strong spot for the quarter, and overall mood is positive. Recent price action tilts upward, but deeper trend signs still look weak, so easing in on down days makes sense. If results are solid, the stock could work back toward its earlier range in three months.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings could surprise to the upside and lift the stock
  • Price looks washed out, with a gentle upward tilt recently
  • Brand keeps gaining visibility with shoppers online and in stores
  • High valuation may limit how far the stock can run near term

How it played out

ELF: the thesis did not reach its target

Lyra published ELF at $140.08 on 2025-10-13 with a short-term thesis for 20% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a possible earnings upside, a washed-out stock with a gentle upward tilt, stronger brand visibility, and high valuation as a limit on the near-term run.

Inside the window, ELF peaked at $141.5 on 2025-10-16, a 1% gain. It stayed below the $168.09 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-11, it ended at $87.02. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-05, e.l.f. Beauty reported fiscal second-quarter net sales of $343.9 million, up 14%. On 2025-11-06, Business Insider reported that ELF fell 35% after full-year profit guidance missed analyst expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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