Track record · closed signal

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) — closed signal from October 13, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 11, 2026 — +20.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BROS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$51.75 Published $67.28 Target $62.37 Window close $65.93 Peak
$48.00 – $50.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$51.75Published — price the day we called it
$67.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$65.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$62.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+20.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+27.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$62.37
last close inside the window, ended January 11, 2026
Peak price
$65.93
peak on December 18, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published October 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$67.28
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$48.00 – $50.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$51.75
published October 13, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Dutch Bros is growing fast but the stock can swing widely. It dropped about 25% this month, yet many investors still like the brand, and stores rose from 754 to 1,043 in two years. Short-term price momentum looks weak, so consider buying only near recent lows. Over the next 3 months, if profit margins hold steady or improve, that could boost confidence and help the stock rebound.

Primary drivers

  • Opening many new drive-thru coffee shops nationwide, adding locations quickly
  • Investors still like the brand even after a sharp recent drop in the stock
  • After a big fall, the price may rebound as interest and buying return
  • If profit margins steady or improve, the stock could move up meaningfully

How it played out

BROS: thesis partially played out

Lyra published BROS at $51.75 on 2025-10-13 with expected growth of 30% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to rapid drive-thru shop openings, continued investor interest after a sharp recent drop, a possible rebound after that fall, and profit margins holding steady or improving.

Inside the window, BROS rose to a peak of $65.93 on 2025-12-18, a 27.4% gain. It stayed below the $67.28 target and never reached it. The stock ended the window at $62.37. The thesis mostly played out on direction and size, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-06, Barron's reported that Dutch Bros had posted third-quarter revenue of $423.6 million, up 25%, and had opened 38 shops in the quarter. The same report said Dutch Bros raised its full-year 2025 revenue forecast to $1.61 billion to $1.615 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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