Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from October 13, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 11, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 13, 2025
Palantir's stock fell after security worries and insider selling. The company later said the flaw claims were not true and announced a multi-year healthcare contract, showing customers still want its AI tools. Investor interest remains solid, but the price is under pressure. Buying closer to $167-$172 could be more forgiving, and over the next three months the price may work back toward a more typical level.
Primary drivers
- New healthcare AI deal widens the potential customer base and long-term demand
- The price dropped quickly while interest from investors stays strong, hinting at a rebound
- Earlier negative headlines are fading as the company addresses the concerns
- High price relative to profits makes shares sensitive, causing bigger moves on news
How it played out
PLTR: target was not reached
Lyra published PLTR on 2025-10-13 at 177.58, with expected growth of 25% toward 221.97. The thesis pointed to a healthcare artificial intelligence deal, a fast price drop while investor interest stayed strong, earlier negative headlines fading, and a high price relative to profits that made the shares sensitive to news.
Inside the window, PLTR rose to 207.52 on 2025-11-03, a 16.9% peak gain. It never reached 221.97. By 2026-01-11, it ended at 177.49, almost back where the signal began. The thesis partly played out because the stock rallied, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-03, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion and raised its full-year revenue outlook to $4.396 billion to $4.4 billion. The same report said adjusted earnings per share were $0.21.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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