Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from October 13, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 11, 2026 — -0% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 13, 2025
Palantir's stock fell after security worries and insider selling. The company later said the flaw claims were not true and announced a multi-year healthcare contract, showing customers still want its AI tools. Investor interest remains solid, but the price is under pressure. Buying closer to $167-$172 could be more forgiving, and over the next three months the price may work back toward a more typical level.
Primary drivers
- New healthcare AI deal widens the potential customer base and long-term demand
- The price dropped quickly while interest from investors stays strong, hinting at a rebound
- Earlier negative headlines are fading as the company addresses the concerns
- High price relative to profits makes shares sensitive, causing bigger moves on news
How it played out
PLTR: target was not reached
Lyra published PLTR on 2025-10-13 at 177.58, with expected growth of 25% toward 221.97. The thesis pointed to a healthcare artificial intelligence deal, a fast price drop while investor interest stayed strong, earlier negative headlines fading, and a high price relative to profits that made the shares sensitive to news.
Inside the window, PLTR rose to 207.52 on 2025-11-03, a 16.9% peak gain. It never reached 221.97. By 2026-01-11, it ended at 177.49, almost back where the signal began. The thesis partly played out because the stock rallied, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-03, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion and raised its full-year revenue outlook to $4.396 billion to $4.4 billion. The same report said adjusted earnings per share were $0.21.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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