Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 13, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 11, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 28 days.
The thesis — published October 13, 2025
Lam should benefit from growing demand for AI chips and new ways to stack and connect them, backed by its Oct 13 etch advance. The stock has dropped a lot, yet trading activity picked up, showing lots more people are buying than usual. News headlines about trade can shake prices, but interest in the group stays solid. Over the next 3 months, pullbacks toward recent lows could offer setups as orders start to improve.
Primary drivers
- New chip-making advance announced Oct 13 that helps advanced packaging
- Price fell a lot, but the recent average price is starting to climb
- Investor mood stays firm even though some momentum signals look weak
- Chip factory tool orders likely recover as AI needs more powerful chips
How it played out
LRCX: target reached in 28 days
Lyra published LRCX at $136.74 on 2025-10-13. The thesis expected 22% growth to $166.55 over the short term. It pointed to a new chip-making advance announced on Oct 13, stronger trading interest after a large drop, firm investor mood, and a likely recovery in chip factory tool orders tied to more powerful chips.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 28 days. It later peaked at $219.59 on 2026-01-09, with a 60.6% peak gain. It ended the window at $218.36. The thesis played out, and the move went well past the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-22, Lam Research reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.26 a share on sales of $5.32 billion, and it guided to $1.15 a share on sales of $5.2 billion for the next quarter. On 2026-01-07, MarketWatch reported that LRCX closed at $203.08 after a 1.87% decline, below its 52-week high from 2026-01-06.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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