AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) — closed signal from October 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 10, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 12, 2025
A big, well-known drug maker looks temporarily out of favor, which often leads to a short-term bounce. Recent price signals are soft, so buying in small steps makes sense. The average analyst target is $232.78 as of Oct 11, showing faith in growth from new drugs after Humira. Over the next 0-3 months, the price could drift back toward its usual range, but patent losses argue for smaller positions and patience.
Primary drivers
- Recent price looks washed out; may snap back toward normal in the near term
- Average analyst target was raised on Oct 11 and confidence in near-term outlook
- Skyrizi and Rinvoq are driving the next wave of sales as Humira fades
- Risks: price pressure, rule changes, and loss of patents that could slow profits
How it played out
ABBV: target was not reached
Lyra published ABBV at $228.85 on 2025-10-12 with a short-term 10% growth expectation and a $249.93 target. The thesis pointed to a washed-out price that might snap back, an average analyst target of $232.78, growth from Skyrizi and Rinvoq as Humira faded, and risks from price pressure, rule changes, and patent losses.
Inside the window, ABBV rose, but not enough. It peaked at $239.29 on 2025-11-13, a 4.6% gain, and stayed below the target. By 2026-01-10 it ended at $220.08. The rebound part partially played out. The target did not.
What happened during the window
On Oct. 31, 2025, AbbVie reported third-quarter revenue of $15.78 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.86 per share. On Nov. 18, 2025, the FDA approved epcoritamab-bysp for follicular lymphoma indications.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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