Track record · closed signal

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 9, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BRK-B price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$470.00 – $485.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$478.27Published — price the day we called it

$526.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$507.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$496.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$507.66

peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+6.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$496.74

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 11, 2025 – October 9, 2025

The thesis — published July 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$526.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$470.00 – $485.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$478.27

published July 11, 2025

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Berkshire's share price dropped 9% because some investors are uneasy about who will lead the company next. The stock now trades at only 1.35 times the value of its assets, cheaper than usual. New leader Greg Abel will speak on the July 11 earnings call, which could calm nerves. If the price moves back to a more typical level, it could reach about $525, helped by $189 billion in cash that can be used to buy back shares. That goal seems reachable within the next quarter.

Primary drivers

After a 9% drop, trading signs show most selling pressure may be over.
Shares look cheap versus company assets, leaving room for a bounce.
Greg Abel's upcoming talk could settle worries about new leadership.
Huge cash pile lets the firm buy back stock, helping support prices.

How it played out

BRK-B: target was not reached

Lyra published BRK-B at $478.27 on July 11, with a short-term thesis for 10% growth toward $526.10. The thesis pointed to a 9% drop, cheaper trading versus assets, Greg Abel's upcoming talk on leadership, and a large cash pile that could support buybacks.

Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach the target. It peaked at $507.66 on September 5, a 6.1% gain, then ended at $496.74 on October 9. That was above the publication price and below the target. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On August 2, 2025, Berkshire reported second-quarter operating profit of $11.2 billion and a $3.8 billion write-down of Kraft Heinz. It also reported no share repurchases in the quarter.

Berkshire Operating Profits Fall 4% in 2nd Quarter. Company Takes Write-Down of Kraft Equity Stake.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All BRK-B signals