Track record · closed signal

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) — closed signal from October 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BLBD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$54.84 Published $64.71 Target $48.43 Window close $58.50 Peak
$54.00 – $55.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$54.84Published — price the day we called it
$64.71Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$58.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$48.43Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$58.50
peak on October 15, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$48.43
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 12, 2025 – January 10, 2026

The thesis — published October 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$64.71
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$54.00 – $55.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$54.84
published October 12, 2025
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Good business with a careful entry plan. Short-term momentum looks calm, so buy in small steps rather than all at once. Recent news shows strong sales and a 317 percent jump in profits per share (10-09). A risk is that clean-energy grants may be reduced (10-08), which could slow orders. Over the next 0-3 months, demand and firm pricing could lift the stock, but the funding risk means using clear exit points is important.

Primary drivers

  • Price appears near a turning point, so staged buying looks more sensible now
  • Sales and profit per share showed strength in the 10-09 company update
  • Move toward electric buses improves product mix and profit per vehicle
  • Potential cuts to clean-energy grants were noted in the 10-08 news

How it played out

BLBD: target was not reached

Lyra published BLBD at $54.84 on 2025-10-12 with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to a careful entry near $54 to $55, calm short-term momentum, strong sales, a 317 percent jump in profits per share from the 10-09 company update, better product mix from electric buses, and a risk from possible clean-energy grant cuts noted on 10-08.

Inside the 2025-10-12 to 2026-01-10 window, BLBD peaked at $58.50 on 2025-10-15, a 6.7% gain. It stayed below $64.71. The stock ended at $48.43. The thesis partially played out early, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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