Track record · closed signal

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) — closed signal from July 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 9, 2025 — -19.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ZIM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$15.73 Published $21.59 Target $12.72 Window close $18.00 Peak
$14.61 – $15.67Entry zone — fair-value band
$15.73Published — price the day we called it
$21.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$18.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$12.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-19.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+7.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$12.72
last close inside the window, ended October 9, 2025
Peak price
$18.00
peak on August 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+40%
over the measurement window
Target price
$21.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$14.61 – $15.67
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$15.73
published July 11, 2025
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shipping prices have steadied after the Middle-East ceasefire, and a key freight index rose 6% this week, boosting ZIM. Investor mood is sky-high. The share now sits near its recent average price and trading volume is up. Although the stock fell 13% over six months, cash still beats debt and the flexible dividend stays. A close above $17.40 could trigger a rush by short sellers, aiming for about $23, while losses are cut near $13.80.

Primary drivers

  • A 6% weekly rise in freight prices hints that sales may soon turn upward.
  • Very optimistic mood, yet the share price still trails, setting up a catch-up move.
  • Cash of $3 bn against $1.9 bn debt supports a 10% dividend others fear will fade.
  • Past moves above $17.4 have led to roughly 40% gains within three months.

How it played out

ZIM: the target was not reached

Lyra published ZIM at $15.73 on 2025-07-11 with a short-term 40% expected gain and a $21.59 target. The thesis pointed to a 6% weekly rise in freight prices, very optimistic mood, cash of $3 bn against $1.9 bn debt, a 10% dividend, and past moves above $17.4.

Inside the 2025-07-11 to 2025-10-09 window, ZIM rose to a peak of $18 on 2025-08-11, a 14.5% gain. It stayed below the $21.59 target. The window ended at $12.72. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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