Amphenol Corporation (APH) — closed signal from October 12, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 10, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 17 days.
The thesis — published October 12, 2025
A high-quality company at a better price. Short-term mood around the stock is weak, so add gradually instead of all at once. Q2 sales jumped 57% thanks to wins tied to AI projects, and the company rolled out new liquid-cooling connectors for data centers. The 10-10 US-China headline shock likely pushed shares down too far. As nerves settle over the next 0-3 months, a rebound is likely, with AI demand still a plus.
Primary drivers
- Price looks unusually weak now; consider buying in small steps over time.
- AI project wins lifted Q2 sales by 57%, signaling strong demand (10-09).
- New liquid-cooling connectors launched for heat-heavy AI data centers (10-08).
- US-China trade scare likely knocked the stock down too far temporarily (10-10).
How it played out
APH: target reached in 17 days
Lyra published APH at $121.47 on 2025-10-12 with a short-term expectation of 15% growth. The thesis pointed to weak short-term mood, Q2 sales up 57% from project wins tied to artificial intelligence, new liquid-cooling connectors for data centers, and a US-China headline shock that may have pushed the stock down too far.
Inside the window, APH reached the $139.42 target in 17 days. It peaked at $144.09 on 2025-11-10, with a 18.6% gain. The window ended at $140.16, still above the target. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-22, Amphenol reported third-quarter results. Barron's reported earnings per share of $0.93 and sales of $6.2 billion, above the figures Wall Street expected.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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