Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from October 12, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$209.54 Published $246.77 Target $301.18 Window close $302.78 Peak
$204.20 – $211.17Entry zone — fair-value band
$209.54Published — price the day we called it
$246.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$302.78Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$301.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 45 days.

Peak price
$302.78
peak on January 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+44.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$301.18
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
45
Window
October 12, 2025 – January 10, 2026

The thesis — published October 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$246.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$204.20 – $211.17
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$209.54
published October 12, 2025
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Short-term selling looks overdone, and the price may rebound as the recent average price turns up and buying interest improves. The new Materials-to-Fab research site with Arizona State University opened on 10-09, highlighting leadership in chip-making tools. A 10-10 tariff headline hurt chip stocks, but if trade noise eases, a 0-3 month recovery toward prior price ceilings is likely. We prefer easing in gradually.

Primary drivers

  • Price fell too fast; recent average price is turning up, hinting at a rebound.
  • New ASU-linked research center (10-09) deepens know-how and keeps them ahead.
  • Tariff news (10-10) knocked the group, creating a temporary price disconnect.
  • Buying in steps helps manage headline and policy uncertainty in the near term.

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 45 days

Lyra published AMAT at $209.54 on 2025-10-12 with an expected 18% short-term gain. The thesis pointed to oversold selling, a recent average price turning up, better buying interest, the 10-09 Arizona State University research site, and a 10-10 tariff headline that had knocked chip stocks.

Inside the window, AMAT reached the $246.77 target in 45 days. It later peaked at $302.78 on 2026-01-09, a 44.5% gain. The window ended at $301.18. The rebound thesis played out, and the target was exceeded.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-12, Tom's Hardware reported that Applied Materials had introduced Kinex, Centura Xtera, and PROVision 10 systems. On 2025-11-13, Investor's Business Daily reported fiscal fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $2.17 a share and sales of $6.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMAT signals