Track record · closed signal

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) — closed signal from October 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NWBI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$11.89 Published $13.56 Target $12.23 Window close $12.91 Peak
$11.31 – $11.89Entry zone — fair-value band
$11.89Published — price the day we called it
$13.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$12.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$12.23Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 54% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$12.91
peak on December 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$12.23
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 12, 2025 – January 10, 2026

The thesis — published October 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.56
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$11.31 – $11.89
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$11.89
published October 12, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares look beaten down, yet the bank's core business and dividend remain solid. Buying has been weak lately, but signs suggest the pressure may be easing, so adding in steps makes sense. Q3 results and the call on Oct 28 could steady nerves. A bearish article raised worry, but steady credit and clear plans for loan profits and deposits could lift the stock in the next 0-3 months if management explains how they will protect margins and keep customer money.

Primary drivers

  • Share price looks very beaten down and is starting to show signs of stabilizing
  • Solid business health and a reliable dividend that pays you to wait
  • Upcoming Q3 results and Oct 28 call could provide clarity and calm worries
  • Concerns from the Oct 9 bearish article may fade as facts replace fear

How it played out

NWBI: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published NWBI at $11.89 on 2025-10-12 with 16% expected growth over a short-term window ending 2026-01-10. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down share price, signs of stabilization, solid business health, a reliable dividend, the Q3 results and Oct 28 call, and the chance that worries from an Oct 9 bearish article would fade.

Inside the window, NWBI rose but never reached the $13.56 target. The peak was $12.91 on 2025-12-11, with an 8.6% gain. It ended at $12.23 on 2026-01-10. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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