Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) — closed signal from October 12, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 10, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 15 days.
The thesis — published October 12, 2025
Memory demand is picking up again, helped by AI chips that need high-end HBM and DRAM. Recent price trends point to buyers gaining the upper hand, and the recent average price is climbing. Morgan Stanley raised its view to Overweight with a $220 target, and the stock still looks cheaper than peers, which supports more upside. Headlines about trade could swing the price, but better pricing and factory use could lift shares toward prior highs in 0-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Prices for HBM and DRAM are improving, likely lifting revenue and margins
- More buyers than sellers lately, with a rising recent average price
- Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock and set a $220 target on 10-11
- Shares look cheaper than similar companies, leaving room for a higher value
How it played out
MU: target reached in 15 days
Lyra published MU at $181.53 for a short-term window from 2025-10-12 to 2026-01-10. The thesis looked for 22% growth toward $221.37. It pointed to improving HBM and DRAM pricing, stronger buying, a rising recent average price, Morgan Stanley's Overweight move with a $220 target, and a valuation that looked cheaper than peers.
The stock reached the target in 15 days. Inside the window, MU peaked at $346.30 on 2026-01-07, with a peak gain of 90.8%. It ended at $345.09. The published thesis played out, and the move went well past the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-12-03, Micron announced that it would wind down the Crucial consumer business by the end of February 2026 and focus supply on larger strategic customers. On 2025-12-17, Micron reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $13.64 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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