T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — closed signal from October 11, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 9, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 5% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 11, 2025
T-Mobile looks like a strong wireless company in a healthy market, but recent price action is mixed, so patience helps. Analysts raised price targets again this week, and home internet over its mobile network keeps growing, which backs a long view. We prefer buying on dips and adding if the trend turns up. If customer counts and average revenue per user hold, the next 0-3 months may be steady.
Primary drivers
- More people adopting 5G and mobile home internet, lifting demand
- Wall Street raised price targets again, signaling improving expectations
- Short-term price signals are weak; patience before adding makes sense
- Stock usually moves calmly, making step-by-step buying practical
How it played out
TMUS: the 15% target was never reached
On October 11, 2025, Lyra published a short-term TMUS thesis at $227.66. It expected 15% growth toward $260.52. The thesis pointed to more 5G and mobile home internet adoption, higher Wall Street price targets, weak short-term price signals, and a preference for patient buying on dips.
Inside the window from October 11, 2025 to January 9, 2026, TMUS peaked at $229.51 on October 14. The peak gain was 0.8%, so it stayed well below the target. It ended at $200.56. The published thesis did not play out.
What happened during the window
On October 23, 2025, T-Mobile reported third-quarter results. Investors Business Daily reported revenue of $21.95 billion and more than one million added postpaid phone subscribers. The same report said the company added 506,000 wireless high-speed internet subscribers.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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