Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 10, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 8, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 60% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 10, 2025
The share price has fallen 6%, a rare dip for this solid company. Berkshire is sitting on more than $190 billion in cash, GEICO’s claims costs are back under control, and management usually buys its own stock whenever it slips below $480. With those buybacks likely to continue and new results due in August expected to show steady profits and smart use of cash, the price could climb about 10% over the next three months with limited bumps along the way, giving investors a timely chance to buy while it is still cheap.
Primary drivers
- Huge $190 billion cash pile lets the firm boost its own share price below $480.
- The recent pullback makes the stock look unusually cheap for Berkshire.
- Service and retail units now supply over a third of sales, adding fresh growth.
- August results should confirm strong insurance profits and active cash use.
How it played out
BRK-B: target was not reached
Lyra published BRK-B at 478.91 on 2025-07-10. The thesis expected about 10% growth over the short term, with a target of 526.80. It pointed to a recent 6% pullback, a cash pile of more than $190 billion, GEICO claims costs, likely buybacks below $480, and August results expected to show steady profits and active cash use.
Inside the window, the stock rose but stopped short. It peaked at 507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 6% gain, and never reached 526.80. By 2025-10-08 it ended at 499.84. The thesis partially played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-02, Berkshire reported second-quarter operating profits of $11.2 billion, down 4%, and said it did not repurchase shares in the quarter. On the same date, it also reported a $3.8 billion after-tax hit tied to a Kraft Heinz writedown.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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