Track record · closed signal

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 8, 2025 — +4.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BRK-B price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$470.00 – $485.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$478.91Published — price the day we called it

$526.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$507.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$499.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 60% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+4.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$499.84

last close inside the window, ended October 8, 2025

Peak price

$507.66

peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 10, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$526.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$470.00 – $485.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$478.91

published July 10, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The share price has fallen 6%, a rare dip for this solid company. Berkshire is sitting on more than $190 billion in cash, GEICO’s claims costs are back under control, and management usually buys its own stock whenever it slips below $480. With those buybacks likely to continue and new results due in August expected to show steady profits and smart use of cash, the price could climb about 10% over the next three months with limited bumps along the way, giving investors a timely chance to buy while it is still cheap.

Primary drivers

Huge $190 billion cash pile lets the firm boost its own share price below $480.
The recent pullback makes the stock look unusually cheap for Berkshire.
Service and retail units now supply over a third of sales, adding fresh growth.
August results should confirm strong insurance profits and active cash use.

How it played out

BRK-B: target was not reached

Lyra published BRK-B at 478.91 on 2025-07-10. The thesis expected about 10% growth over the short term, with a target of 526.80. It pointed to a recent 6% pullback, a cash pile of more than $190 billion, GEICO claims costs, likely buybacks below $480, and August results expected to show steady profits and active cash use.

Inside the window, the stock rose but stopped short. It peaked at 507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 6% gain, and never reached 526.80. By 2025-10-08 it ended at 499.84. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-02, Berkshire reported second-quarter operating profits of $11.2 billion, down 4%, and said it did not repurchase shares in the quarter. On the same date, it also reported a $3.8 billion after-tax hit tied to a Kraft Heinz writedown.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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