Air Lease Corporation (AL) — closed signal from October 10, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 8, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 10, 2025
This is a merger trade. A buyer has offered $65 in cash for the company, so the stock has limited room to rise above that. The shares now sit a bit below the offer. Recent notices and a fleet update suggest there is process risk, yet the business looks steady. Over the next three months, the price may move closer to $65 as the deal moves forward. Keep an eye on news about approvals and timing.
Primary drivers
- A $65 all-cash buyout has been announced, so gains above $65 are limited.
- Shares trade below the offer, and price may move closer as deal progresses.
- Fleet size and future aircraft orders support steady rental income and cash.
- Approvals and legal steps could delay closing, which can sway the share price.
How it played out
AL: target was not reached
Lyra published AL at $63.41 on 2025-10-10 with an expected 8% move and a $68.25 target. The thesis pointed to a $65 all-cash buyout, shares trading below the offer, steady fleet and order support, and approval or legal timing as risks that could sway the price.
Inside the window, AL rose only to $64.40 on 2025-12-15, a 1.6% peak gain. It stayed below the $68.25 target and never reached it. The stock ended the window at $64.20 on 2026-01-08. The thesis partly played out because the price rose, but the target missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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