Track record · closed signal

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA) — closed signal from October 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 8, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MARA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$21.49 Published $31.16 Target $10.44 Window close $23.45 Peak
$20.00 – $22.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$21.49Published — price the day we called it
$31.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$23.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$23.45
peak on October 15, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$10.44
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 10, 2025 – January 8, 2026

The thesis — published October 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+45%
over the measurement window
Target price
$31.16
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$20.00 – $22.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$21.49
published October 10, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Marathon Digital often moves more than Bitcoin, so when Bitcoin rises, this stock can jump. Right now lots more people are buying than usual, and a 10-09 update said Bitcoin hit new records above $126k with more big investors watching. Because the price can swing hard, buying on dips is safer. Over the next 3 months, outcomes depend on Bitcoin's path and power costs, so keep positions modest.

Primary drivers

  • When Bitcoin makes new highs, mining rewards rise and revenue can increase
  • Many buyers and a rising recent average price suggest strong near-term momentum
  • Seen as a leading crypto stock, which can attract attention and new capital
  • Expanding into high-performance computing could add a new stream of income

How it played out

MARA: target was not reached

Lyra published MARA at $21.49 on 2025-10-10, with expected growth of 45% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to Bitcoin strength, heavy buying, recent price momentum, attention around leading crypto stocks, and possible income from high-performance computing expansion. The target was $31.16.

Inside the window, MARA peaked at $23.45 on 2025-10-15, a 9.1% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached it. By 2026-01-08, the stock ended at $10.44. The thesis partially played out at first, but the published target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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