Track record · closed signal

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA) — closed signal from October 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 8, 2026 — -51.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MARA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$20.00 – $22.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$21.49Published — price the day we called it

$31.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$23.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$10.44Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-51.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$10.44

last close inside the window, ended January 8, 2026

Peak price

$23.45

peak on October 15, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 10, 2025

Predicted growth

+45%

over the measurement window

Target price

$31.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$20.00 – $22.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$21.49

published October 10, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Marathon Digital often moves more than Bitcoin, so when Bitcoin rises, this stock can jump. Right now lots more people are buying than usual, and a 10-09 update said Bitcoin hit new records above $126k with more big investors watching. Because the price can swing hard, buying on dips is safer. Over the next 3 months, outcomes depend on Bitcoin's path and power costs, so keep positions modest.

Primary drivers

When Bitcoin makes new highs, mining rewards rise and revenue can increase
Many buyers and a rising recent average price suggest strong near-term momentum
Seen as a leading crypto stock, which can attract attention and new capital
Expanding into high-performance computing could add a new stream of income

How it played out

MARA: target was not reached

Lyra published MARA at $21.49 on 2025-10-10, with expected growth of 45% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to Bitcoin strength, heavy buying, recent price momentum, attention around leading crypto stocks, and possible income from high-performance computing expansion. The target was $31.16.

Inside the window, MARA peaked at $23.45 on 2025-10-15, a 9.1% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached it. By 2026-01-08, the stock ended at $10.44. The thesis partially played out at first, but the published target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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