Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB) — closed signal from October 10, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 8, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 10, 2025
COLB looks beaten down but seems to be settling into a stable price range. Investor mood is very positive, and a 10-09 update pointed to a projected 39.2 percent rise in net interest income, which helps support the business. The dividend and renewed interest in cheaper bank stocks also help. A clear shift toward stronger buying would confirm a 3-month recovery toward the high $20s if credit and funding stay steady.
Primary drivers
- Shares look oversold but appear to be forming a stable trading range now.
- Projected 39.2% net interest income could lift earnings and support shares.
- Dividend plus fresh interest in cheaper bank stocks adds steady support.
- Recent average price is steady, and trading interest appears healthier.
How it played out
COLB: rose 12.8% but stayed below target
Lyra published COLB at $26.32 on 2025-10-10 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-08. The thesis expected 17% growth toward $30.39. It pointed to a stock that looked beaten down but stable, projected 39.2% net interest income growth, dividend support, renewed interest in cheaper bank stocks, and healthier trading interest.
Inside the window, COLB rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $29.70 on 2026-01-08, a 12.8% gain, and it stayed below $30.39. It ended at $29.36. The thesis partially played out: direction was right, but the published target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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