Track record · closed signal

Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB) — closed signal from October 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 8, 2026 — +11.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

COLB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$25.33 – $26.30Entry zone — fair-value band

$26.32Published — price the day we called it

$30.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$29.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$29.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+11.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$29.36

last close inside the window, ended January 8, 2026

Peak price

$29.70

peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 10, 2025

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$30.39

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$25.33 – $26.30

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$26.32

published October 10, 2025

Confidence

79%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

COLB looks beaten down but seems to be settling into a stable price range. Investor mood is very positive, and a 10-09 update pointed to a projected 39.2 percent rise in net interest income, which helps support the business. The dividend and renewed interest in cheaper bank stocks also help. A clear shift toward stronger buying would confirm a 3-month recovery toward the high $20s if credit and funding stay steady.

Primary drivers

Shares look oversold but appear to be forming a stable trading range now.
Projected 39.2% net interest income could lift earnings and support shares.
Dividend plus fresh interest in cheaper bank stocks adds steady support.
Recent average price is steady, and trading interest appears healthier.

How it played out

COLB: rose 12.8% but stayed below target

Lyra published COLB at $26.32 on 2025-10-10 for a short-term window ending 2026-01-08. The thesis expected 17% growth toward $30.39. It pointed to a stock that looked beaten down but stable, projected 39.2% net interest income growth, dividend support, renewed interest in cheaper bank stocks, and healthier trading interest.

Inside the window, COLB rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $29.70 on 2026-01-08, a 12.8% gain, and it stayed below $30.39. It ended at $29.36. The thesis partially played out: direction was right, but the published target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All COLB signals