Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from October 10, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 8, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$140.86 Published $177.19 Target $200.96 Window close $210.45 Peak
$137.55 – $141.53Entry zone — fair-value band
$140.86Published — price the day we called it
$177.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$210.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$200.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 75 days.

Peak price
$210.45
peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+49.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$200.96
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
75
Window
October 10, 2025 – January 8, 2026

The thesis — published October 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$177.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$137.55 – $141.53
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$140.86
published October 10, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam Research shares look beaten down, with signs that selling may be ending and buyers returning, while spending on AI and high-bandwidth memory tools stays steady. News about weak chips and tighter China rare-earth exports is a risk, but more factory building in other regions can speed orders for its etch and deposition gear. If the price ends a day above $145, it may start a 3-month climb back toward earlier highs.

Primary drivers

  • Shares look beaten down, with signals that selling is easing and buyers returning.
  • Spending on AI and high-bandwidth memory equipment is still holding up well.
  • New VECTOR TEOS 3D adds products that help build taller chip layer stacks.
  • More local manufacturing could pull forward orders for Lam's tools.

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 75 days

Lyra published LRCX at $140.86 on October 10, 2025. It expected 26% growth toward $177.19, after a daily close above $145. The thesis pointed to selling easing, buyers returning, steady spending on artificial intelligence and high-bandwidth memory equipment, VECTOR TEOS 3D, and local manufacturing pulling orders forward.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 75 days. It peaked at $210.45 on January 6, 2026, with a 49.4% peak gain. It ended the window at $200.96 on January 8, 2026. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On October 22, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that Lam earned adjusted $1.26 a share on sales of $5.32 billion for the quarter ended September 28, 2025, and guided the current quarter above analyst views.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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